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Week 7 Fantasy Football: Start or Sit

October 18, 2012

Fantasy, Fantasy Football, Features, NFL

In this week 7 edition of Sit or Start, the agenda is to point out those players worth starting above others based upon matchup and past performances.  It will not be exhaustive but instead will cover players who are considered undeniable starts that are primed to produce.

QUARTERBACKS

Starts:

Drew Brees– He’s the top scorer per game in fantasy so far and with a matchup against a Tampa Bay team that gives up plenty of yards through the air, Brees should be a solid bet for over 300 yards and multiple touchdowns.

Ben Roethlisberger– After throwing for over 350 yards last week with a depleted running game, Roethlisberger should be primed to do it again with the running game still in question and the Bengals defense being ordinary.

Big Ben is primed to have another solid week statistically.

Tom Brady– While his team has been disappointing, Brady is still one of the best and with a matchup againstthe rival Jets, and having come off a last second loss to the Seahawks, a big game is in order.  Brady will carve up the Jets in a statement win.

UNDER THE RADAR-Josh Freeman has been quietly efficient in fantasy the past few weeks having a 3 touchdown game recently and with the Saints in town Freeman should be able to make big plays down the field through the air.

Sits:

Matthew Stafford-The Bears are the top scoring defense in fantasy and are creating turnovers like crazy. Considering that the game is in Chicago, and considering that Stafford has still been inconsistent, he is a risky start at best

Joe Flacco– Even with the Houston defense missing a few key pieces, they are still formidable and should be able to prevent Flacco from being effective in moving the ball down the field.

RUNNING BACKS

Starts:

C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson-Both guys had at least 80 total yards and a touchdown last week and with the Titans coming to town both should have at least that level of production.  The number of touches was slightly higher for Jackson but the average yard per touch was higher for Spiller so it’s tough to put one above the other.  Both need to be played on Sunday.

Trent Richardson-As long as he’s healthy (and it looks like he will be) Richardson is a must start and considering the way Shonn Greene ran all over the Colts last week, Richardson should do be able to do the same.

Felix Jones-With DeMarco Murray out this week, Jones is a must start for the Cowboys who will be relying upon him to handle the bulk of the carries.  Jones had over 90 yards rushing and a touchdown filling in for Murray last week and with him being the expected starter, Jones is sure to get at least 15 quality touches.

UNDER THE RADAR: Alex Green is the official starter in Green Bay now that Cedric Benson is gone until late November and he will get the bulk of the touches.  He had almost 70 yards on over 20 touches last week which isn’t a great average per touch but there’s no doubt that he has ample opportunity and that’s a safe thing to have.

Alex Green should have another solid week for the explosive Packers offense.

Sits:

Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram-Both have been less than stellar so far this season and with a visit to the Buccaneers who have an above average run defense, both should have little success running the ball.  Darren Sproles is the safe New Orleans back to have because he will be used in the passing game.  Avoid both because their yards per carry will be dismal.

William Powell-Powell is the new #1 in Arizona after both Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams got hurt and he had 90 total yards in his first start.  This week he faces a tough Vikings defensive line which should stifle his value and make him tough to use.

DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart-Unlike the Buffalo running backs, both Stewart and Williams are not producing with any consistency and they are hard to predict in how they will be used and how many touches either will get.  It’s dangerous to use them until the situation clears up.

Mikel LeShoure– The Bears have a strong defensive front and LeShoure will have a hard time finding extra yards.  Expect a low average per carry and a Lions team that will have to resort to throwing the ball sooner rather than later which will limit the rushes he gets.  Joique Bell could have more value this week because he gets so much use in the passing game.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Starts:

Wes Welker– He’s back to being the number one receiver on New England having four straight 100 yard games and catching touchdowns in consecutive weeks.  Right now he is the best option on offense for the Patriots and shouldn’t disappoint this week.

Vincent Jackson and Marques Colston– Both face off against each other in Tampa this week and both should be main targets for their quarterbacks in what will amount to a shootout.  Expect touchdowns from both and likely 100 yard games for each.

Denarius Moore-Moore had 100 yards and a touchdown last week and that should be a sign that he’s healthy and back to big play potential.  Moore should be a pleasant surprise again this week.

Sits:

Reggie Wayne-Wayne has clearly been the number one target for Andrew Luck this year and though it’s tough to sit him, expectations should be lessened this week as long as Wayne is covered by Joe Haden who is considered one of the better corners in the league.  If better options are available than avoid Wayne who could have a muted outing.

Steve Smith-Smith is towards the bottom of the list for points per game average for receivers so far this season and much of that has to do with Cam Newton’s inability to be consistent.  Expect that trend to continue this week.

Expect Steve Smith to have another disappointing fantasy week.

WARNING: Calvin Johnson could be in store for another rough night.  He’s recently had a few great games but if Stafford struggles early it could mean a lot of targets that end up as incompletions for Johnson.  He is a must start but the results could be ugly.

TIGHT ENDS

Starts:

Jason Witten– Witten has gotten back on track now that he’s healthy and he should factor largely in the Cowboys gameplan against the struggling Panthers.

Rob Gronkowski- Gronk has been inconsistent and banged up for most of the season but look for a big outing against the rival Jets.  Gronk will score this week.

UNDER THE RADAR: Jared Cook has been up and down so far but everyone has been able to score on the Bills and Cook has as good a shot as any Titan to score this week.

Sits:

Jermichael Finley-He is the 22nd best scoring tight end in fantasy right now on a per game average and is so inconsistent that he shouldn’t be used.  He is droppable.

Kyle Rudolph-Rudolph has been excellent so far this year for the Vikings and while he’s been scoring on average in the top 5 for tight ends that might not be the case this week against a strong Cardinals defense that could hinder him.

KICKERS

Starts:

David Akers– There could be a lot of kicks in the bay area tonight between two elite defenses.  He will be relied upon to score points.

Lawrence Tynes– Tynes is one the best kickers in the league in points per game average for fantasy and he should get a lot of play against the Redskins.

Jason Hanson-He’s the top scoring kicker in fantasy and might be the main source of points for the Lions on Monday night.

Expect veteran Jason Hanson to continue his stellar fantasy season.

Sits:

Mason Crosby-Crosby’s value is found mostly in extra points for the Packers.  He has become slightly overrated.

Ryan Lindell/Josh Scobee– Both are at the bottom for average fantasy points per game for kickers and that is likely not to change.

DEFENSES

Starts:

Chicago– The Bears have the runaway best defense in fantasy and with the Lions coming to town on Monday night the Bears should have a big game.  Look for more takeways that lead to points.

Minnesota– The Vikings defense has been better than expected and with the Cardinals coming to town who are starting a new quarterback, the sacks and turnovers should be available.

Sits:

Baltimore– With the loss of two major starters on the defense, the Ravens D is probably just useable for certain matchups.  This week they face the Texans.  This is not a matchup in which they should be used.

New York Jets– The Jets defense had a field day last week against the Colts and helped to boost their value.  This week they face the Patriots who are far more dangerous.  Avoid them this week.

This post was written by Eric Watson, a newcomer to The Farm Club and fantasy football geek. He has his own blog as well, named The Fantasy Football Exchange. Leave him some comments if you enjoyed the piece as much as we did.

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2 Comments on “Week 7 Fantasy Football: Start or Sit”

  1. Chase Okorowski Says:

    Only a fool would sit Reggie Wayne, forget Joe Haden, the browns have been torched in terms of receiving all year, there hasn’t been one top WR that had a bad day against them, most weeks have them with atleast 2 receiving touchdowns in addition to most of thier opponents shutting down the passing game late, I mean even Buffalo’s Stevie Johnson had a 7-61-1 stat line. All this, along with Reggie Wayne being a top wideout and Luck’s best (if not only) legitimate target. C’mon, no way he should be on your sit list.

    Reply

    • Anonymous Says:

      I don’t disagree with you, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Donnie Avery or T.Y. Hilton or even Dewayne Allen end up catching touchdowns. My intent was to point out someone who could disappoint based upon projections but your comments are certainly true. Thanks for the input.

      Reply

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