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Erik Underwood’s Free MLB Picks 8/1/2012

August 1, 2012

Baseball

Neil Walker is helping lead the Pirates toward the playoffs

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs

The Cub’s firesale has left them very depleted, and they are throwing a pitcher who has struggled GREATLY over his last few starts.  Travis Wood has given up 22 runs over his last 15.2 innings pitched.  His day game ERA is much higher than in night games, and the Pirates actually have something to play for.

Jeff Karstens has been solid since being put into the starting rotation, and the Pirate bats should give him enough support to leave Wrigley with a win.  The public is all over the Pirate’s short line, but I’m thinking they’re right in this situation.  Playing Pittsburgh at good value here.

Play: Pittsburgh Pirates -119, 1.5 units

Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins

This game comes down to numbers for me.  Jake Peavy has been very good this year, but has struggled to show the same consistency during day games.  He has given up 8 home runs in his day starts, and is carrying a 4.66 ERA.  Compare that to his night game ERA of 2.66 and you can see why I would think to fade him.

Scott Diamond is just the opposite.  He has thrived during day games, putting up a 5-0 record with a 1.82 ERA this year.  The White Sox don’t hit lefties as well as they hit righties, which should help Diamond navigate this lineup.  The Twins offense has been a little better than expected, and I’m sniffing out an upset in this Central division battle.

Play: Minnesota Twins +112, 1.5 units

Erik Underwood is the creator of Saturdays in the Fall.  Visit him at www.saturdaysinthefall.com for these picks and more, and follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/erikunderwood

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