Erik Underwood’s Free Baseball Picks: 7/28/2012

July 28, 2012


Anibal Sanchez is making his Tigers debut today

Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays

The tigers have been hot lately, and although they hit a bump in the road over the last two games, they should right the ship today.  They were at a big disadvantage last night because of Rick Porcello’s high number of ground balls.  Their defense isn’t good enough to consistently find good range on turf , making it tough for Porcello to get outs.

Anibal Sanchez will throw for them today, and will present a much better matchup for his new team.  Sanchez is more of a strikeout pitcher, averaging a very respectable 8.18 K/9.  Henderson Alvarez counters for Toronto.  He has struggled over his last few starts, yielding 14 runs in 17 innings.  I think we can expect to see some runs put up by the Tigers as they take game 2 of the series.

Play: Detroit Tigers -137, 1.5 units

Philadelphia Philies @ Atlanta Braves

This is really just a regression play for me.  Mike Minor and Joe Blanton will be the starters in this matchup, and I believe we’re seeing two pitchers who are kind of far from what their career statistics indicate they should be at.  Blanton has over-achieved so far in my view, while mike minor has pitched nowhere near his potential in 2012.

The Phillies don’t hit lefties well, and Minor is finally starting to show some flashes over his last few starts.  He has given up only 5 runs over his last 19.1 innings, striking out 17 over that span.  Blanton has pitched well lately, but I just have to think we’re going to see him start to fade here very soon.  He is facing a very good lineup today, and will hopefully begin to decline.  I think we’re getting the braves at home at a very good price here.

Play: Atlanta Braves -120, 1.5 units

I’m looking for Johnny Cueto to produce another outstanding start in Colorado

Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies

Christian Friedrich has really struggled at home so far, which is understandable when your home games are at Coors Field in Colorado.  His ERA is 8.23 at home, versus the 3.77 ERA he is carrying on the road.  He will face off against Johnny Cueto, who I would back pretty much anywhere he pitches.  I think Cueto is really one of the most under-the-radar ace pitchers in baseball.

Cueto has started 20 games so far this year, and has given up over 3 runs only twice.  He has a 2.23 ERA, and a 1.17 WHIP.  The reds have been red-hot over the last two weeks, and are facing a Colorado team who is out of any kind of playoff hunt.  The Reds are on at a decent price, but I took them at -1 to reduce the juice a little bit, as I think they should win this by more than 1.

Play Cincinnati Reds -1 (-131), 1.5 units

Erik Underwood is the creator of Saturdays in the Fall.  Visit him at for these picks and more, and follow him on Twitter at



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One Comment on “Erik Underwood’s Free Baseball Picks: 7/28/2012”

  1. Says:

    I relish, cause I discovered just what I was looking for. You have ended my four day long hunt! God Bless you man. Have a nice day. Bye


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