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Erik Underwood’s MLB Picks: 7/19/2012

July 19, 2012

Baseball

Hudson and the Braves look to salvage a game against the Giants today at Turner Field.

San Fransisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves

The Braves will look to bounce back from a tough loss at the hands of the Giants last night.  They have lost the first two games of the series by a combined score of 18-4.  Prior to that the Braves had won 8 of 9 and were beginning to gain ground on the first place Nationals.  I’m fully expecting a big effort out of Atlanta today, who really need to salvage one game out of this series.  Because of it being an early day game after an extra inning night game, we can expect to see some backups in the lineup for both teams.  That would give the edge to Atlanta, who has a little bit more depth in their position players.

Tim Hudson will take the mound to stop the bleeding for the Braves as he looks to outduel Madison Bumgarner.  Hudson has been very up and down this season, but he seems to always bounce back with a solid start after a bad one.  In his last start he was roughed up for 4 runs in 4 innings, so we can expect an improvement from him.  He has been much better in day games than in night games, posting an ERA of 2.81, as opposed to his night game ERA of 4.20.  The Giants are due to cool off a little bit.  I’ll back the Braves at a really good price today.

Play: Atlanta Braves -107, 1.25 units

It’s tough to find value in the Cub’s line today, despite them being one of baseball’s hottest teams of late.

Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have been on a tear recently, but at just about even money I don’t see enough value to back an average pitcher like Paul Maholm.  Mark Buehrle has been solid for Miami all year.  He isn’t a high-strikeout pitcher, but he locates well and induces soft contact.  I expect a solid outing from Buehrle today, and it doesn’t hurt that he is facing a team that struggles to hit left-handed pitching.  They’ve been a little better of late, but have only raised their average against lefties to .230.  The Fish should bounce back and get a win today at Wrigley.  Really good value on Miami.

Play: Miami Marlins -120, 1.2 units

Erik Underwood is the creator of Saturdays in the Fall.  Visit him at www.saturdaysinthefall.com, and follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/erikunderwood

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